The pitfalls of watching/reading too much high stakes poker

It has been a slow week for me in terms of poker. Not least because I’ve not had much time to play due to work and other commitments. When I have played in freerolls I’ve busted out quickly, either due to being sucked out on, or because I’ve struggled to pick any cards up in the first 15 minutes, which is pretty much game over.

As such, I’ll fill up the obvious gap by discussing a phenomenon I see quite a lot when looking on forums, speaking to friends or playing poker online and which frequently amuses me.

There is a fantastic chapter in Let there be Range that addresses common leaks in players who spend a lot of their time watching or reading high stakes poker, yet play low-mid stakes games and one of these is ‘outlevelling’ and I couldn’t agree more.

Outlevelling refers to people who spend too much time reading up on poker and who inevitably overestimate the level of competition they face when playing donks at their $2 multi-table tournaments. They tend to make their decisions as if they are sitting across from the table from Tom Dwan or Patrik Antonius rather than some average Joe who stuck $10 in his account because he was drawn in by the pretty colours while surfing for porn.

The players who frequently populate low stakes games are pretty poor. This is a generalisation of course, and you will definitely find some decent players who either don’t have the bankroll or the time to make a run at the higher stakes just yet (I’d like to think I am one of those players), but they will not make up a large percentage of the people sitting in your $1 donkaments.

How is this a problem for someone who reads too much high stakes poker and thinks they are the next Phil Ivey? It’s pretty simple, they don’t adjust their tactics for terrible players and they often make plays based on what THEY would do in their opponents’ position, rather than actually thinking what the idiot fool next to them will actually do.

Here is an example:

Player 1 (let’s call him IveyWannabe) thinks he’s a bit of a legend. He’s read Kill Everyone and spends a lot of his time watching YouTube poker clips. This player can’t get through a conversation without saying something like this: “I’ve found running at VPIP/PFR stats of 25/20 has resulted in me being massively EV+ over a standard range of 5,000 hands”.

Player 2 we’ll refer to as DonkTastic21. He has trouble tying up his own shoelaces, failed GCSE maths and thinks Annie Duke is the fit bird that works behind the bar in the Nag’s Head.

This is the kind of hand you will see play out with people who outlevel themselves.

IveyWannabe picks up 7♦ 8♦ in middle position. There are no limpers so he puts in a raise of 2.5X the BB. He’s a big fan of suited connectors and feels he will be able to outplay his opponents post-flop if he doesn’t hit.

DonkTastic21 is in the small blind. He looks down at Q♣ 4♠ and thinks “Well, that’s a small raise, I might as well call because I have a queen and queens are pretty good”

Flop comes: A♦ Q♥ 7♥

DonkTastic21 pauses for about 5 seconds clearly struggling not to bet out with his middle pair, before checking.

IveyWannabe sees the pause, but doesn’t put him on aces and decides to represent an ace himself, and so bets half the pot with his bottom pair. DonkTastic21 insta-calls.

Turn: 3♣

No help to either player. At this point DonkTastic21 puts out a minimum bet. A classic “I have a weak hand and I want to try and prevent you putting a big bet in” tactic that is fairly common in poor players.

IveyWannabe’s thought processes: “I’m pretty sure he has a queen, if I reraise him here, he’ll have to fold because in his position I would put me on a big ace, two pair or even a set”. He raises the pot amount and DonkTastic21 insta-calls.

River: 2♠

DonkTastic21 checks (this is an arbitrary decision based on the fact that his mouse cursor happens to be closer to the check button than the raise button).

IveyWannabe KNOWS he is behind, but decides that DonkTastic21 cannot possibly call an all-in over-bet on the river because it would be the most ridiculous call in the world. IveyWannabe has represented a big hand all the way through and this would be for all of DonkTastic’s chips quite close to the bubble.

IveyWannabe pushes. DonkTastic21 insta-calls and takes down the pot with second pair, awful kicker. IveyWannabe laments that his awesome play didn’t work, although fails to realise that it is a terrible play against this particular player.

The moral of this story? Don’t get clever with morons. They won’t understand what you are trying to do. Understanding a lot about poker will always help you with your game, but play to your opponents weaknesses not some abstract concept of what constitutes “good poker”.

If your opponents keep calling your 6X BB raises when you have AA or KK, keep doing it! Hell, try 8X BB and see where that gets you. Don’t mess around with 2.2X BB raises and let 4-5 idiots in with junk if you are getting paid off raising big.