Reading poker tells: Over-rated or an important edge?

Online poker has dominated the scene over the last decade or so, giving birth to a new breed of young, aggressive, mathematically focused players that are able to play 20+ tables at once to extract maximum profit.

In this environment, the skill of being able to read tells has been reduced to noticing specific betting patterns or hand ranges.

With so many tables open, most players rely on software such as Poker Tracker to collect information, allowing them to make decisions based on a variety of different statistics.

Obviously, being stuck behind a computer screen prevents you from seeing how your opponent behaves during the course of a hand, making it impossible to extract information on the strength of his cards other than to judge how he plays them.

However, in live tournament play, picking up tells can be a powerful weapon to add to your arsenal, particularly when you are playing at low-stakes games.

Even at the highest stakes, there are enough amateur players entering (and running deep) to make it a worthwhile skill to possess, even if it isn’t exactly foolproof.

Let’s look at some examples. What makes these quite interesting is that they are from televised final table events with huge prizepools, meaning tells can still be evident at this level.

#1 Looking disinterested

If someone looks disinterested in their hand it is often a pretty big tell that they have a monster (unless they fold preflop of course, sometimes people are just bored!).

In the most extreme cases, this can be accompanied by a yawn, a big sigh or gazing around the room to give off the impression they are weak.

Here is an example from series eight of the World Poker Tour involving amateur Jeremy Brown and online heads-up specialist Olivier Busquet.

There are a number of tells Brown shows throughout this hand, with most of them picked up by commentators Mike Sexton and Vince Van Patten.

40-46 seconds: Brown shakes his head at the flop, but has a massive grin

58 seconds to 1:05 minutes: Brown looks around the room, supposedly agonising over his decision

1:06 minutes: Big sigh … “How can I possibly call this”

This should definitely get the “Monster Alert” sirens going, but amazingly Busquet misses all of this, probably because he spends the hand looking at the felt rather than his opponent.

A general rule of thumb in poker is that players will often act strong when they are weak and vice versa. So also be on the look out for people shoving in their chips aggressively – this could mean they are on a marginal hand or a draw.

Now, these tells were pretty obvious and they are certainly something to watch out for when you’re playing.

However, you should also be aware that some people will try and pull the wool over your eyes by putting on an act.

For example, they will be thinking “I know that he knows that people act weak when they are strong, so I’ll act strong when I’m strong.”

This makes tells like this pretty unreliable, but that doesn’t mean you should ignore it. Particularly in local tournaments where it is unlikely the above kind of levelling is going on.

#2 Microexpressions

For me, microexpressions are a much more reliable poker tell than other behavioural changes. I’ve not actually read or heard anything about microexpressions in relation to poker, so I’m making this up as I go along, but I definitely think there is some merit in the idea.

Microexpressions (if you couldn’t be bothered clicking on the link) are exceedingly brief, involuntary changes to a person’s facial expression that usually display happiness, disgust or fear.

What makes them important in a poker context is that they are very difficult to fake and almost as hard to hide.The problem is that they are almost imperceptible, meaning they are easily missed.

Here is an example, again from the World Poker Tour. This time between 2-time WSOP bracelet winner Mark Seif and Dan Heimiller.

Blink and you might miss it, but at 1:51, when the 9♦ comes on the river, Heimiller nods slightly and smiles for the briefest of seconds. I think this is a microexpression.

Now, I’m willing to admit I am probably over-analysing. It’s easy to make these comments when you have the luxury of knowing his cards (plus I can rewind and watch it again), but I certainly think it is worth examining your opponents when the dealer brings new cards out, just to see how they react. You may save yourself money.

Note: Even if he missed this tiny tell, I think Seif made a pretty poor call here. Seif is an excellent player, far better than me, but I think he should make the tough laydown when Heimiller bets the river.

The lead out bet on the river is so strong, it reeks of a boat or flush, and I think the chances of Heimiller floating to the river with air are pretty slim. That puts the hands Seif can beat down to a busted spade flush.

Ultimately, I would say being able to read tells is an excellent skill to possess as a poker player, but it is definitely overshadowed by other, more important, skills.

Having a good basis in maths will definitely give you a bigger edge over the long term, as will the ability to analyse a hand step by step to try and isolate your opponents’ hand ranges.

It’s just a shame I suck at those.